The Delphi technique is a forecasting or estimating method based on a discussion by a group of experts. This technique is generally used to predict the probability and outcome of future events. This technique was first developed by the Rand Corporation after World War II to accept technological advancements and predict future requirements in the military more efficiently.
The Oracle of Delphi, after whom this technique is named, was highly regarded in ancient Greece for her prophecies. She was believed to speak the words of the god Apollo himself. Kings and businessmen used to send their delegates to the famed Oracle to hear her prophecies on war, peace, life, and death, on which they would then base important decisions. Even travelers from as far as modern-day Afghanistan and Egypt used to travel to her and seek her counsel for important personal matters.
As you can see, the similarity is clear ā both the Oracle of Delphi (then) and the Delphi technique (now) are used to make important decisions. The advantage of the Delphi technique, however, is that you neednāt travel all the way to Greece for accurate decision-making.
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What Is the Delphi Technique Anyway?
Ever heard of the expression, āTwo heads are better than oneā? Itās another way of saying that people usually come up with better solutions if they have other people to collaborate with. Bouncing ideas off your friends helps you get a different perspective of the problem at hand. So, if two heads are better than one, a panel of experts is even better. The Delphi technique in PMP, also known as the Delphi method or Delphi forecasting, is a tool used to make quick decisions with consensus. This technique consists of sending several sets of anonymous questions to each expert. This is followed by a group discussion after every round. If you want to be able to handle large-scale projects or lead a project team, getting certified is a good idea. Holding a Project Management Professional certification will increase your knowledge of PMP principles. It will also boost your credibility amongst your peers.
Applications
The Delphi Technique is useful in two scenarios:
Scenario I: When there are several subject matter experts available, but each of their advice varies significantly
In this case, you can still arrive at a common solution. You first collect input from each expert. Then, evaluate all the inputs youāve received and look for similarities between them. You eliminate the options that are completely different from the common inputs. For example, letās say you receive a set of twelve insights. Of this, if there are three points that are common among all the experts involved, you select them. You then send these three points back to the experts, asking them to further analyze and re-evaluate their findings. You repeat this process until you finally zero in on a solution with consensus from all experts.
Scenario II: When the experts are spread across different geographical locations and cannot come to a common place to arrive at a solution
Here, you conduct an anonymous poll and gather advice from all the experts. The advantage of this method is that you donāt have to worry about factors like disagreements or ego clashes between them. Everyone submits their inputs anonymously, and you reach a consensus from all the experts involved.
As you can see, this method of estimation using the Delphi technique can be used to break down complex discussions. Even with several experts present, it avoids a clash of opinions and helps them draw conclusions without any issues.
Procedure
- Define the problem youāre trying to solve
- Choose a facilitator whoās unbiased and familiar with the issue at hand
- Select a group of experts
- Instruct each expert to assess all options using a rationale
- Gather all evaluations
- Circulate these inputs back to the entire group
- All experts evaluate and revise each otherās work
- Repeat this process until you reach a consensus
- Perform a detailed analysis and formulate a plan for your project
Instructions
The Delphi technique PMP is used to make decisions involving a group of experts. This is important because you cannot use this technique for just about anything. The experts must make their final decision after considering several qualitative criteria. For example, you can produce a cost/manpower/time estimate for the construction of a skyscraper using this technique.
The key to using the Delphi technique PMP is anonymity. Each expert is aware of the decisions that have been made at every round. However, they do not know who made it. This way, they can express their opinions freely while avoiding a clash of opinions and egos.
Itās a good idea to enroll with a Premier Authorized Training Partner of PMI because youāll get to learn from PMI-certified instructors. The course content will also be tailored specifically for the PMP exam. KnowledgeHut is a training provider that offers all these advantages and more. So, a KnowledgeHut Project Management Professional certification is your best bet!
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Delphi Technique ā A Step-by-Step Guide
Letās look at the various steps involved while implementing the PMP Delphi technique:
The first step is to choose a facilitator who understands the issue. They must be unbiased and familiar with data collection since they will moderate the decision-making process. In this example, letās name our facilitator Ryan.
This step decides how successful you are in implementing the PMP Delphi technique. These experts will take the discussion forward and can be specialists from your industry.
It is essential that you understand the problem at hand. Does it warrant using the PMP Delphi technique? If yes, what are you trying to estimate/ forecast?
Ryan hands out the first set of questionnaires to the experts. The questions are usually open-ended, allowing them to brainstorm and state their opinions freely. This also allows Ryan to understand the various perspectives at play. Once done, he collects all the answers and prepares a summary report. However, the expertsā identities remain confidential.
Based on the findings gathered in round one, Ryan prepares the second set of questionnaires. He does this to help the experts dig deeper into the issue. Once all of them have submitted their answers, Ryan gathers and condenses them. He then looks for similarities and removes irrelevant material. He then prepares another summary report and distributes it among the experts.
Please note that some of the experts may, after looking at the first summary report, change their opinion. This is common because their peers may force them to examine the issue from a different perspective.
Ryan repeats the cycle of rounds one and two until all the experts reach an agreement. Once their forecasts echo the same sentiment, Ryan can take a break and have a glass of water. If not, he conducts several more rounds until all the experts reach a consensus.
Now, since all the experts agree upon the proposed course of action, you must act on your findings. This typically involves designing a plan to address the issue with proven time management techniques.
Where Is the Delphi Technique Used for the PMP Exam Preparation?
The Delphi technique is a tool that you need to learn in case youāre planning to take the PMP or CAPM exam. Letās say you have to spearhead a project. In that case, it will have multiple stakeholders, and conflicts are bound to arise. Itās naĆÆve to assume that they will agree on everything, all the time. One of the most common problems you face as a project manager is getting everyone to agree on the direction you want to take. The PMP Delphi technique is a quick technique to reach consensus and make decisions. It assumes that decisions made in a more structured setting tend to be more accurate. Within the PMBOK guide, youāll also see that the PMP Delphi technique is used with a lot of other processes.
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Important Components of the Delphi Method
The following components are essential for the successful implementation of the PMP Delphi technique:
As mentioned earlier, the PMP Delphi technique assumes that the decisions made in a structured setting participants are more accurate. The experts follow a set process to participate, answer the questionnaires, and deliver feedback. They are aware that this cycle will be repeated until all of them come to an agreement. Those who have followed this structured approach argue that it is more effective at reaching a consensus rather than unstructured groups. The latter tend to be unreliable and prone to bias.
The contribution of all experts is kept anonymous. This allows them to express their opinions and counter their peers freely. They neednāt worry about damaging personal or professional relationships.
This person is responsible for preparing questionnaires and gathering the responses received. He must then condense them and prepare summary reports for the experts. Since this cycle continues until consensus is reached, it Is essential that he maintains a neutral role in the group.
The PMP Delphi technique comes in handy when there are numerous stakeholders, and when they operate in different locations and/or time zones. You can still collect inputs from all of them through anonymous polls or surveys.
Advantages of the Delphi Technique
- Giving a voice to everyone
Since the PMP Delphi technique deals with written answers to anonymous questionnaires, it does a really good job of giving a voice to each expert. Even when theyāre brainstorming, they can state their opinions freely. They neednāt worry about speaking out in front of a crowd, or their peers accusing them of being biased. Consequently, you can gain and distill all the knowledge they have to offer.
Easier to get team leads together
Today, itās very common for project teams to be separated by both distance and time zones. This isnāt a problem if you used the PMP Delphi technique because they use structured and anonymous surveys. You can continue the cycle of condensing answers and preparing new questionnaires until all the experts reach a consensus.
Improves unity
Using the PMP Delphi method, you can gather many more opinions from the experts than might be possible in a one-on-one meeting. This helps the participants make better, quicker decisions because thereās much more material to discuss. Another advantage of using the PMP Delphi technique is that it makes all the experts feel heard and valued.
How Will You Apply the Delphi Technique?
Having learnt all about the PMP Delphi technique, what are your thoughts about it? Do you feel this tool is better suited to help project managers solve business problems? If yes, you might want to consider using this method in your next project. However, always remember to ensure that you include all its important components for a successful outcome. If you feel the need for improvement, there are several Project Management certification courses available online that will help you get better at Delphi.
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Frequently Asked Questions
1. What is Delphi Technique in project management?
The Delphi technique, also known as the Delphi method or Delphi forecasting, is a forecasting or estimating method based on a discussion by a group of experts. It is generally used to predict the probability and outcome of future events.
2. What is Delphi Technique example?
An example of using the Delphi technique is estimating the time/money required to construct a building. Another example would be estimating the possibility of roadblocks in a project.
3. Why is Delphi Technique used?
The Delphi technique is used to make decisions involving a group of experts. It consists of sending several sets of anonymous questions to each expert, followed by a group discussion.
4. What are the steps of the Delphi Technique?
- Choose a Facilitator
- Identify your Experts
- Define the problem
- Round One Questions
- Round Two Questions
- Round Three Questions
- Act on your Findings
